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【主权评级】土耳其共和国跟踪评级报告

[2017-12-07 09:27:27] 来源:通吃岛证券 编辑: 点击量:
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导读:作者:程泽宇 李为峰联合资信 主权部本次评级结果长期外币信用等级:BBi长期本币信用等级:BBBi-评级展望:稳定上次评级结果长期外币信用等级:BBi长期本币信用等级:BBBi-评级展望:稳定评级时间2017年11月30日主要数据评级观点2016年,土耳其共和国(以下简称“土耳其”)受军事政变



作者:程泽宇 李为峰

联合资信 主权部


本次评级结果

长期外币信用等级:BBi

长期本币信用等级:BBBi-

评级展望:稳定

上次评级结果

长期外币信用等级:BBi

长期本币信用等级:BBBi-

评级展望:稳定

评级时间

2017年11月30日


主要数据


评级观点

2016年,土耳其共和国(以下简称“土耳其”)受军事政变影响,政治稳定性持续下降,经济增速大幅下滑,通胀水平高位运行,就业市场进一步恶化。土耳其国家发达程度一般,经济结构抗风险性较强,产业结构较为合理,整体营商环境较好,银行体系较为稳健,难民问题也得到一定程度缓解。土耳其财政实力强,尽管财政赤字水平小幅上升,但政府债务水平仍然较低,财政收入对政府债务的保障能力很强。土耳其外部融资实力一般,对外贸易及经常账户持续赤字,外债水平不断上升,外债偿付压力有所增大。经综合评估,联合资信评估有限公司(以下简称“联合资信”)确定维持土耳其长期本币信用等级为BBBi-,外币信用等级为BBi。

随着国内政局不稳定性逐步消除、经济增速逐步回升、外商投资信心增强、土耳其里拉对美元趋稳,未来一段时期内土耳其政府债务及外债偿付能力有望保持稳定。经综合评估,联合资信确定土耳其长期本、外币评级的展望均为稳定。


优势

� 银行业监管严格,基本面较为健康;

� 政府债务水平较低,财政收入对政府债务的保障能力较强;

� 政府外债水平较低,经常账户收入和外汇储备对其保障能力很强。

关注

� 受军事政变、民族冲突、难民问题等因素影响,政治稳定性较差;

� 经济增速大幅下滑,面临高通胀和高失业等问题;

� 外债规模不断增长,经常账户收入和外汇储备对外债的保障能力有所下降;

� 本币大幅贬值,对外债偿付能力有所削弱。


Rating Results (Affirmed)

Long-term Foreign Currency Rating: BBi

Long-term Local Currency Rating: BBBi-

Rating Outlook: Stable

Rating Results (Previous)

Long-term Foreign Currency Rating: BBi

Long-term Local Currency Rating: BBBi-

Rating Outlook: Stable

Date of Rating: November 30th, 2017

Major Indicators


Rationale

In 2016, the political stability of the Republic of Turkey (“Turkey”) continues to decline due to attempted coup. Turkey’s economic growth has a downtrend with high inflation rate and worsened employment condition. As a medium-developed economy, Turkey has a relatively high resilience to risks in economy structure, and enjoys reasonable industry structure, good business environment, and solid banking system. Turkey has a strong public financing strength. Although the fiscal deficit of Turkey shows a steady increase, the government debt is at a low level and the coverage ratio of revenue to debt is high. External financing strength of Turkey is moderate with continous deficits in foreign trade and current account, and the level of government external debt keeps increasing, leading to high repayment pressure of external debt. In conclusion, China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (Lianhe Ratings) affirmed Turkey’s long-term local currency credit rating at BBBi-, and foreign currency credit rating at BBi.

Benefiting from increasing stable political situation, gradually recovery economic growth, improving confidence of foreign investors and gradually steady currency value, the solvency of government debt and external debt is expected to remain stable. According to these, the outlook on Turkey’s long-term local currency and foreign currency ratings is stable.


Strengths

� Solid banking system with sound fundamentals;

� Government debt is under control and well covered by government revenue;

� Level of external government debt is low and capacity of repaying external debt remains strong.

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